Reversing the long-established position of the Lib Dems in NE Fife, the electoral prediction website Electoral Calculus has put the Conservative vote share ahead of the Lib Dems at 29.5%. It rates Tony Miklinski’s chances of winning the seat at 40%, only 3% behind the SNP.
The new predictions signal a ground-breaking change in the political profile of North East Fife which the Lib Dems have regarded as a stronghold for decades. For the first time since Menzies Campbell took the parliamentary seat in 1987, the Conservatives have nudged ahead, predicted to take 29.5% of the vote share against the Lib Dems’ 29.1%, and given a 40% chance of winning the seat against a Lib Dem chance of only 17%.
According to Electoral Calculus, the UK’s most highly regarded website for predicting the General Election result using scientific analysis of opinion polls and electoral geography, the Conservatives are fast catching up on the SNP whose Stephen Gethins took the seat from the Lib Dems two years ago. It puts the SNP vote share at 35.3% and rates its chance of winning at 43%, only 3% behind the Conservatives.
Tony Miklinski, Scottish Conservative & Unionist candidate for NE Fife said:
“This is exactly what we have suspected since the Fife Council results two weeks ago when the number of Conservative seats shot up from 3 to 15.
“The Scottish Conservatives are gathering momentum across Scotland and that includes NE Fife, where a Conservative win is now within sight.
“We’ve caught up and overtaken the Lib Dems in NE Fife, becoming the obvious choice for anyone who wants to stop the SNP.
“Unionist voters can now choose who to beat the SNP on the basis of merit: Tim Farron, Willie Rennie and Elizabeth Riches……. or Theresa May, Ruth Davidson and Tony Miklinski.
“We have a much stronger record standing up for the Union against the SNP than the Lib Dems and I will be a much more influential voice for NE Fife at Westminster than Elizabeth Riches.”